A new poll conducted by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee says that its candidate Stephanie Murphy is within striking distance of longtime incumbent Republican U.S. Rep. John Mica in Florida’s 7th Congressional District.
The poll gives Mica 48 percent and Murphy 45 percent in the district, which covers north central and northeast Orange County and all of Seminole County. That 3 percent gap is within the poll’s margin of error.
The poll was commissioned by the DCCC, which is spending $3 million so far to elect Murphy.
Consequently, Mica’s campaign quickly dismissed it.
“It’s the oldest trick in the book to use a deceitful and misleading push poll,” said Mica’s campaign spokesman Alan Byrd. “We’ve heard from countless individuals who have heard the one-sided attack by Washington political power brokers disguised as a poll.
The poll was conducted Sept. 13-15 by the Global Strategy Group and Lester & Associates. They describe it as a district-wide survey of 401 likely November 2016 voters with a margin of error of 4.9 percent. The pollsters said care taken to ensure the geographic and demographic divisions of the expected electorate are properly represented based on historical turnout.
It did not specify whether the historic turnout was based on the 2008 and ’12 elections, which saw significantly more Democrats, or included other years, which did not.
The DCCC said an August poll gave Mica an 18-point lead. That was before the DCCC, Murphy and the House Majority PAC began running pro-Murphy, anti-Mica TV ads in Orlando.
Mica has just purchased $892,000 worth of his TV ads, though they have not yet begun airing. The campaign has not yet revealed its commercials.
The new DCCC poll also found CD 7 voters favoring Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton over Republican Donald Trump, 47 percent to 41 percent. It also found that 47 percent of voters believe