Posts Tagged ‘Likely primary voters’

Lake O land buy plan a non-starter with likely Republican voters, poll shows

Wednesday, February 22nd, 2017

Likely Republican voters are against the Florida Senate proposal to buy land south of Lake Okeechobee, according to a new poll released by the Associated Industries of Florida obtained by Florida Politics.
The survey asked Republican voters about a variety of issues on the table for the 2017 Legislative Session and no matter the wording, the South Florida land buy was a loser.
When asked whether the Legislature should use eminent domain to buy the farmland for environmental purposes, a whopping 65 percent of those polled said they disagreed, with just 21 percent approving.
Voter opinion was just as harsh when the poll asked if the “state should continue to buy private farmland for environmental purposes and take it out of production, even if that means the state must borrow the money to purchase bonds.”
Voters said by a 64-23 margin that they disagreed with the proposition, with Panhandle Republicans supporting the idea slightly more than those living in the Jacksonville media market.
AIF also asked voters about the ongoing debate over whether to dismantle economic incentive programs and tourism marketing arm Visit Florida, but concluded the issue was too complex to comprehend for voters.
“Overall awareness on these debates is low in this survey, regardless of how the question is tested,” said Ryan Tyson, AIF’s Vice President of Political Operations. “Furthermore, the nuances of the policy points used to better describe ‘incentives for job growth’ vs ‘corporate welfare’ are far too complex for decisive support for either position in this survey.”
AIF said no matter the phrasing, the results for the incentives debate were contradictory “and talking points can easily get a voter to one side of the argument or the other.”
The survey did find that 55 percent of those polled said the Legislature is spending tax dollars wisely, though most of that support is soft, with 44 percent

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GOP leaders get high marks from their Republican base, new Associated Industries of Florida poll shows

Wednesday, February 22nd, 2017

Republicans are getting a good report card from Florida voters according to a new poll conducted by Associated Industries of Florida and obtained by Florida politics.
AIF found that 71 percent of likely Republican voters think the state is headed in the right direction, and an astounding 81 percent approve of the job President Donald Trump is doing through his first month in the White House.
The Trump numbers are a far cry from the most recent Gallup national poll on his popularity, which showed him with a 40 percent approval rating on Feb. 17.
Naysayers measured in at 20 percent for the direction of the state and 14 percent for Trump’s job approval, leading to a net 51 percent approval and 67 percent approval, respectively.
Survey participants also had no qualms with Gov. Rick Scott, who garnered 81 percent support compared to 14 percent who said he his performance wasn’t up to snuff.
While Scott and Trump are enjoying glowing reviews from likely Republican voters, second-term U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio isn’t faring as well.
Though 69 percent of those polled said they thought he was doing a good job, the bulk of those supporters said they only “somewhat approved” of the Miami Republican, leaving him with a softer approval rating than Scott or Trump.
AIF surveyed 800 likely Republican voters who had voted in at least one of the last three Republican primaries, but not the presidential preference in 2016. The group said 81 percent of those polled were over 50 years old and 90 percent were white.
The post GOP leaders get high marks from their Republican base, new Associated Industries of Florida poll shows appeared first on Florida Politics.

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Pam Bondi still a rock star with Florida’s GOP voters, new AIF poll shows

Wednesday, February 22nd, 2017

Florida’s top lawmakers and Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam are struggling with low name identification among likely Republican voters, but that isn’t the case for Attorney General Pam Bondi according to a new poll from statewide business advocate Associated Industries of Florida.
The AIF poll of likely Republican voters obtained by Florida Politics found that 54 percent approve of the job the second-term Attorney General is doing, while just 12 percent have an unfavorable view and 17 percent said they had no opinion.
Among Florida’s top elected Republicans, Bondi’s ratings only trailed Gov. Rick Scott, who had a net 67 percent approval rating, and U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio, who netted 57 percent approval.

Putnam, who is considered an early frontrunner to take over for Scott, scored 38 percent approval from the same crowd, with 3 percent voicing disapproval and 20 percent saying they had no opinion.
Putnam did come out on top in the mock ballot test for the Republican primary for Florida governor with 22 percent support, though 71 percent said they were undecided. The next highest vote-getter was House Speaker Richard Corcoran with 4 percent support.
AIF also tested the waters for the cabinet positions opening up in 2018, though each scenario featured “undecided” winning over 80 percent of the vote.
In other words, “there’s no news here,” notes Ryan Tyson, Vice President of Political Operations for AIF.
The low level of support for Corcoran likely stems from the fact only 44 percent 0f those polled knew who he was. Of those, 16 percent said approved of the job he was doing, while 4 percent disapproved and 24 percent had no opinion.
Senate President Joe Negron and Senate Appropriations Chair Jack Latvala had even lower name ID than the House Speaker, with just 41 percent and 25 percent recognizing their names, respectively.
Still, both enjoyed relative approval from the Republican

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The Salt Shaker returns: Testing a pair of UNF polls

Thursday, October 29th, 2015

The saltshaker is back. 
Due mostly to a hectic schedule, we put the Florida Politics saltshaker on a brief hiatus. But, as polling season heats up (Did it ever really cool down?) and actual voting isn’t that far off, it’s now time to break it out of the cupboard and take a look at the two most recent Florida polls.
UNF recently released its findings from two polls, one of Republicans and one of Democrats, and, frankly, they are both pretty good.
Recall that the GOP poll showed Trump with a slight lead (21.7%) over a closing Ben Carson (19.3%), with Rubio just under 15% and Jeb Bush “at a distant fourth with 9 percent of the vote.” Recall also, this was one of the first to show Trump’s lead beginning to slip in the Sunshine State.
And, the Democratic poll showed Hillary with a very large (54.6%) lead over both Sanders (15.9%) and Biden (11.2%).
For clarification, when we say the polls were “good” that is not a value statement of the results, but only our opinion of how the polls were conducted.
So let’s apply the saltshaker test.
These polls, according to the methodology statement, checked most of the boxes that need checking. They surveyed likely voters, as opposed to “registered” ones, asked industry standard questions, verified they were speaking with the target voter, had decent enough sample sizes (641 and 632 respondents respectively), attempted to complete calls via cell phone (although they don’t say how many were actually conducted by cell phone) and balanced the sample to look like the likely voting electorate.
Here is a statement from Dr. Binder on how they derived their sample based on geography:
“Our quotas were based on the % of “likely primary voters” in each media market, those demographic totals were then used as baseline demographics to which we

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